Indus Water Treaty: A Historic Pact Now in Crisis

Hello, friends! Today, we’re diving into the Indus Water Treaty (IWT), a landmark agreement that has shaped water-sharing between India and Pakistan for over six decades. However, recent developments have put this treaty in the spotlight, with India announcing its suspension in April 2025. Let’s break it down in an informational yet engaging way, exploring the treaty’s history, its significance, the reasons behind its suspension, and what lies ahead.

What is the Indus Water Treaty?

The Indus Water Treaty is an international agreement signed on 19 September 1960 between India and Pakistan, brokered by the World Bank. Its primary objective was to equitably distribute the waters of the Indus River System, which includes six major rivers: Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej. These rivers originate largely in India (in regions like Jammu & Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh) but flow into Pakistan, making water allocation a critical issue since the 1947 partition.

Key Provisions of the Treaty:

Eastern Rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej): India was granted near-complete control for irrigation, hydropower, and other uses, with approximately 33 million acre-feet (MAF) of water annually.
Western Rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab): Pakistan was allocated the majority of the water, around 135 MAF annually. India can use these rivers for non-consumptive purposes (e.g., hydropower, run-of-the-river projects) but must ensure minimal interference with Pakistan’s water flow.
Permanent Indus Commission: A bilateral body with representatives from both countries was established to monitor implementation, share data (e.g., river flow and project plans), and resolve disputes. If unresolved, disputes can escalate to a Neutral Expert or a Court of Arbitration.
Data Sharing: Both countries are required to exchange information on river flows and planned projects to ensure transparency.

The treaty, signed by India’s Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Pakistan’s President Ayub Khan, is considered one of the most successful water-sharing agreements globally, surviving multiple wars (1965, 1971, 1999) and ongoing political tensions.

Why is the Treaty Significant?

Promotes Peace: Despite India-Pakistan rivalry, the IWT has been a rare example of sustained cooperation. It has provided a framework for managing a shared resource critical to both nations, even during conflicts like the Kargil War.
Economic Lifeline: The Indus River System supports agriculture, hydropower, and drinking water needs:
- Pakistan: Over 80% of its agriculture, including crops like wheat, rice, and cotton, depends on the Indus system, contributing significantly to its GDP.
- India: States like Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan rely on the eastern rivers for irrigation and food security.
Conflict Resolution Mechanism: The Permanent Indus Commission has resolved minor disputes, while larger issues (e.g., Baglihar and Kishanganga projects) have been addressed through Neutral Experts or arbitration, ensuring diplomatic solutions.
Global Model: The treaty’s longevity and resilience have made it a case study for transboundary water management, inspiring agreements in other regions.

Indus Water Treaty Suspended

On 23 April 2025, India announced that the Indus Water Treaty has been placed in indefinite abeyance, effectively suspending its implementation. This unprecedented decision came a day after the Pahalgam terror attack in Jammu & Kashmir, where 26 people were killed and 10 injured. The attack was claimed by The Resistance Front (TRF), an offshoot of the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba.

Key Details of the Suspension:

Official Statement: Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri stated, “The Indus Water Treaty of 1960 will be held in abeyance with immediate effect, until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably abjures its support for cross-border terrorism.” The decision was approved by the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS), chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Additional Measures: India also closed the Attari-Wagah border, gave Pakistani nationals 48 hours to leave India, and canceled visas issued under the SAARC Visa Exemption Scheme for Pakistani citizens.
Rationale: India alleges that Pakistan supports cross-border terrorism, with the Pahalgam attack linked to groups operating from Pakistani soil. Pakistan denies these allegations.

This marks the first time India has suspended the treaty, though tensions over it have surfaced before. In 2016, after the Uri attack, PM Modi remarked, “Blood and water cannot flow together,” but no formal action was taken then.

Why Was This Decision Taken?

The suspension is a strategic response to escalating security concerns:

Terrorism as a Trigger: India views the Pahalgam attack as part of a pattern of Pakistan-backed terrorism, particularly in Jammu & Kashmir. The government’s decision reflects a zero-tolerance policy toward such acts.
Diplomatic Signal: Suspending the treaty sends a strong message to Pakistan and the international community that India will leverage all tools, including water, to pressure Pakistan on security issues.
Public Sentiment: Posts on X, including by former diplomat Kanwal Sibal, echoed the sentiment that “blood and water can’t go together,” reflecting growing domestic calls to reconsider the treaty amid terror attacks.

Impact on Pakistan

The suspension could have severe consequences for Pakistan, given its heavy reliance on the Indus River System:

Agricultural Crisis: Pakistan’s agrarian economy, which employs 40% of its workforce, depends on the western rivers for irrigating over 18 million hectares. Disruptions could lead to crop failures, threatening food security and exports (e.g., rice and cotton).
Water Scarcity: Pakistan is already classified as a water-stressed country, with per capita water availability below 1,000 cubic meters. Reduced flows could exacerbate shortages in urban and rural areas.
Hydropower Disruptions: Major dams like Tarbela (Indus) and Mangla (Jhelum) generate significant electricity. Unpredictable water flows could disrupt power supply, worsening energy shortages.
Loss of Data: India’s decision to halt data sharing on river flows and projects will hinder Pakistan’s ability to plan water management, flood control, and drought mitigation.
Economic Fallout: The World Bank estimates that water-related losses could cost Pakistan’s economy billions, with long-term impacts on GDP growth.

Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif announced that civilian and military leadership would meet on 24 April 2025 to formulate a response. Pakistan may appeal to the World Bank or escalate the issue to the United Nations, arguing that the suspension violates international law.

Impact on India

The suspension offers India strategic advantages but also risks:

Increased Control: India can now use the western rivers for storage, irrigation, or hydropower projects without treaty restrictions, benefiting states like Jammu & Kashmir and Punjab.
Geopolitical Leverage: The move strengthens India’s position in bilateral relations, signaling that it can use water as a diplomatic tool.
Risks:
- International Backlash: The World Bank, as a guarantor, may intervene, and global powers could pressure India to resume compliance to avoid a humanitarian crisis in Pakistan.
- Regional Instability: Reduced water flows could fuel anti-India sentiment in Pakistan, potentially escalating tensions or cross-border conflicts.
- Environmental Concerns: Unregulated use of western rivers could strain India’s own water management systems, especially amid climate change.

Historical Challenges and Disputes

The treaty has faced challenges over the years:

Hydropower Disputes: Pakistan objected to India’s Baglihar (2008) and Kishanganga (2013) projects, claiming they reduced water flows. Neutral Experts and arbitration largely upheld India’s compliance, though tensions persisted.
Trust Deficit: Political animosity, especially over Kashmir, has fueled mutual suspicion. Pakistan often accuses India of “water weaponization,” while India insists it adheres to treaty obligations.
Climate Change: Melting Himalayan glaciers and erratic monsoons have made river flows unpredictable, straining the treaty’s fixed allocation model. Both countries face water stress, with India’s per capita availability at 1,500 cubic meters and Pakistan’s even lower.
Modernization Needs: Pakistan has sought to renegotiate the treaty to address climate change and population growth, but India has resisted, citing the treaty’s robustness.

Can the Treaty Be Fully Terminated?

Legally, India can unilaterally withdraw from the treaty, as it is a bilateral agreement, not binding under customary international law. However, complete termination would face significant hurdles:

World Bank’s Role: As a signatory and guarantor, the World Bank could mediate or face pressure to act if Pakistan raises a formal complaint.
Global Implications: Terminating the treaty could set a precedent for other transboundary water agreements, affecting India’s relations with neighbors like Bangladesh (Ganges Treaty) and China (Brahmaputra).
Humanitarian Concerns: Blocking water to Pakistan could trigger a crisis, drawing condemnation from the international community.

The current “abeyance” is a temporary suspension, leaving room for India to resume compliance if Pakistan addresses terrorism concerns or if diplomatic pressures mount.

The Indus Water Treaty has been a cornerstone of India-Pakistan cooperation, ensuring equitable water-sharing despite decades of hostility. Its suspension on 23 April 2025, following the Pahalgam terror attack, reflects India’s resolve to link water cooperation with security concerns. While this move gives India strategic leverage, it risks escalating tensions and triggering a humanitarian crisis in Pakistan. The treaty’s future hinges on diplomatic efforts, Pakistan’s response to India’s demands, and the international community’s role in averting a broader conflict.

Disclaimer:

The article “Indus Water Treaty: A Historic Pact Now in Crisis” is for informational purposes only, based on public sources as of 24 April 2025. It does not reflect official positions of any government or entity, including India, Pakistan, or the World Bank. Informed sphere is not liable for errors, omissions, or actions taken based on this content. Verify information with official sources, as the situation is evolving. Opinions are the author’s and not necessarily those of Informed Sphere. External links do not imply endorsement. Seek professional advice for legal or political matters.